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The investment climate in 2024 has looked cautiously optimistic, although prospects are clouded by the perennial uncertainty of economic conditions. While global foreign direct investment modestly recovered, major challenges remain, such as geopolitical tensions and inflation in developed markets. As a result, investors are seeking new emerging markets. Among them, Kazakhstan, the largest and most economically developed country in Central Asia, is one of the options on the table. Situated at the juncture of Europe and Asia, possessing significant natural resources, and pursuing an economic diversification policy, the country is worthy of closer attention.

The panel discussion, “Central Asia and the New Era of Global Energy Security,” held as part of the prestigious Doha Forum, gathered a distinguished group of experts and officials to examine the role of Central Asia in shaping the future of global energy markets. Against the backdrop of a shifting geopolitical landscape, the session underscored the region’s pivotal position in international energy security and its growing influence on the decarbonization agenda.

The event, organized in partnership with the Astana International Forum, featured key figures from government, academia, and industry:

• Charles McLean, Founder and Managing Director, Borderless Consulting Group
• H.E. Fariz Rzayev, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Azerbaijan
• Magzum Mirzagaliyev, Chairman, KAZENERGY Association, Kazakhstan
• H.E. Igli Hasani, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Republic of Albania
• Victor Gao, Vice President, Center for China and Globalization
• Dr. Joshua Lincoln, Senior Fellow, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

Energy Geopolitics at a Crossroads

Moderator Charles McLean opened the discussion by highlighting that “the changing geopolitical landscape is reshaping energy production and markets, with Central Asia poised to become a pivotal player.” He invited each panelist to share their perspectives, with Dr. Joshua Lincoln delivering a powerful opening statement.

“Central Asia is increasingly important to global energy markets,” Dr. Lincoln stated. “The region faces the challenge of balancing three realities: national circumstances, geopolitical pressures, and the global shift toward decarbonization. For example, Kazakhstan aims for 50% renewable energy by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. However, this is a region where post-Soviet infrastructure requires massive renewal, and achieving this goal will require sustained investment and bold leadership.”

Dr. Lincoln also drew attention to the “imponderables” in the energy equation, such as the emerging petrochemicals market and its implications for oil and gas producers. He concluded by stating, “This region has the potential to become a global leader in the production and export of green energy.”

Kazakhstan’s Strategy for Green Energy Leadership

As one of the most prominent energy exporters in the region, Magzum Mirzagaliyev highlighted Kazakhstan’s ambitious plans to become a leader in green energy. “Our president has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, and while 70% of our energy currently comes from coal, we are on track to produce 50% of our energy from green sources by 2050,” he said.

Mirzagaliyev also highlighted Kazakhstan’s role in developing the Trans-Caspian Energy Route, a landmark project aimed at transporting green energy from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan through Azerbaijan to Europe. “This initiative will not only support Kazakhstan’s ambitions as a green energy exporter but will also strengthen the Middle Corridor’s capacity to deliver energy to European markets.”

On regional cooperation, he remarked, “The Central Asian region has no other option but to cooperate. We are also part of the greater Caspian region, and as middle-power countries, we play a crucial role in facilitating dialogue between major global players.”

Azerbaijan’s Role as a Gateway for Central Asia

H.E. Fariz Rzayev of Azerbaijan emphasized his country’s pivotal role as a transport and energy hub, connecting Central Asia to global markets. He drew attention to Azerbaijan’s landmark contribution to infrastructure, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum oil and gas pipelines and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, which have significantly transformed regional connectivity.

Rzayev stated, “Azerbaijan is a landlocked country, but we have reopened access to the Caspian Basin and created new opportunities for Central Asian partners. Our strategy is rooted in diversification, and with the development of the Middle Corridor, we aim to be the western gateway for the region’s energy exports.”

The Role of the Middle Corridor: A Key to European Energy Security

H.E. Igli Hasani underscored the Middle Corridor’s strategic significance in linking Central Asia to Europe via Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus.

“The Middle Corridor is no longer a secondary option,”Hasanistated. “It is now essential, given the sanctions on the northern route and the growing geopolitical tensions. We must accelerate development, reduce bureaucratic fragmentation, and ensure smooth collaboration between countries.”

Hasani also commended Azerbaijan for its contributions to green energy transition projects. “Together with our friends and partners from Central Asia, we have signed agreements on the Strategic Cooperation for the Development and Transmission of Green Energy. This is a historic initiative.”

China’s Perspective: Connectivity and the Energy Security Imperative

As a representative of the world’s largest energy consumer, Victor Gao shared a Chinese perspective, emphasizing the importance of stability and connectivity. “Central Asia is critical for China’s energy security. We import crude Oil from Kazakhstan and natural gas from Turkmenistan, with pipelines passing through Kazakhstan. It’s not just about supply, but also about transit,” he explained.

Gao also addressed the controversial rhetoric surrounding “dirty oil”and “dirty gas.” “There is no dirty oil or gas,” he asserted. “Energy security depends on availability, sustainability, and affordability. Labeling certain types of energy as ‘dirty’ risks politicizing the energy transition counterproductively.”

He concluded with a call for creativity and cooperation, stressing that “humanity will likely need to double the energy capacity we have today to sustain the AI age. This is why Central Asia’s potential for wind, solar, and green energy development is critical. We must think long-term and act together.”

A Vision for the Future

The session cloncluded with Magzum Mirzagaliyev reflecting on Central Asia’s role as a middle-power region and the importance of regional cooperation. “Middle powers, like Kazakhstan, will have a growing role as facilitators of dialogue between larger powers. We are not just passive players, but contributors to global solutions.”

Victor Gao provided a fitting conclusion: “Oil and gas will remain with humanity for a long time. The challenge is to use them better and to ensure that as we shift to electric vehicles and renewable energy, we do so without hollowing out the manufacturing capacities of key economies like Germany.”

Moderator Charles McLean summarized the session, stating, “Innovation is the essence of this conversation. Central Asia is positioning itself at the heart of the global energy transition from green energy to the Middle Corridor and regional cooperation. The region’s success in navigating these challenges will profoundly affect energy markets, climate goals, and geopolitics worldwide.”

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It is worth noting that earlier, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, participated in the Doha Forum as an honorary guest. During the event, the head of state spoke at a special session in the Newsmaker Interview formatmoderated by CNN journalist Julia Chatterley. In his address, the President emphasized the need for UN reform and highlighted the role of middle powers in promoting peace and security, with Kazakhstan being a key example. He pointed out that the lack of dialogue between major powers has resulted in a deadlock at the UN Security Council, and that middle powers can play a pivotal role in ensuring stability at both regional and global levels.

In addition, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed issues related to global trade policy, stressing the importance of adhering to WTO norms and criticizing the use of tariff measures and trade barriers. The President underscored Kazakhstan's commitment to maintaining constructive and mutually beneficial relations with its regional and international partners. The session also covered topics related to Kazakhstan's foreign policy, conflict resolution - including the situation in Ukraine and developments in the Middle East - as well as the role of youth in the country's sustainable development.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was a distinguished participant at the opening ceremony of the Doha Forum.Held annuallyin Qatar’s capitalsince 2003, this year's forum convened under the theme "Diplomacy, Dialogue, and Diversity".It brought together global leaders to address critical issues such as geopolitics, economic development, energy, new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, and food security, facilitating a robust exchange of ideas on contemporary global challenges.

In dialogue with CNN’s Julia Chatterley at a Newsmaker Interview session, President Tokayev, in discussion with CNN journalist Julia Chatterley,President Tokayev highlighted the critical need for a robust United Nations, highlighting the increasing significance of middle powers in global governance.

"The UN, as a universal organization, is essential for humanity, and currently there is no alternative. Regrettably, major powers have not succeeded in making the world safer, which, for understandable reasons, greatly concerns many countries, including Kazakhstan. Therefore, it is evident that the UN requires reform. We believe that bridges should be built between the major powers to break the deadlock in the Security Council. So-called middle powers, including Kazakhstan, can play a vital role in promoting peace and security at both regional and global levels," President Tokayev noted.

President Tokayev also elaborated on thecurrent contradictions withinglobal trade and the important of maintaining open markets during the session.

"In my opinion, trade conflicts, including tariff measures, are not the best solution and often do more harm than good. As a member of the World Trade Organisation, Kazakhstan strictly adheres to all norms and rules of this important trade and economic organization. We do not support barriers and conflicts, and instead advocate for open markets. Kazakhstan is not involved in such confrontations because we have always maintained constructive and mutually beneficial relations with our neighbors in the region and beyond. Therefore, we urge all major powers to refrain from using trade as a tool of pressure," President Tokayev remarked.

He further addressed questions about Kazakhstan’s multifaceted foreign policy, efforts towards resolving conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and highlighted the pivotal role of youth in the nation's progress.

The Astana Think Tank Forum, held on October 16 to 17, provided a platform for diplomats, policymakers, and experts to discuss pressing global challenges. The sponsors of the forum were the Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), Kazakhmys Corporation LLC, and the Central-Asian Institute of Environmental Research (CAIER).

The forum's seventh session, moderated by Prof. Dr. Muhittin Ataman, Editor-in-chief of Insight Turkey, delved into how nations can act as stabilizing forces, fostering dialogue, promoting multilateralism, and contributing to conflict resolution in various regional and global contexts. Panelists included Bruno Tertrais, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), Ambassador Rainer Rudolph, Vice Chairman of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), Minhyeon Jeong, Head of Russia and Eurasia of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) ), and Mendee Jargalsaikhan, Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the National Security Council of Mongolia.